Abu Dhabi Pivots Away From BRICS Already

In a significant setback for China's ambitions to strengthen ties with the UAE, G42, a leading security and AI company based in the UAE, has decided to exclude Chinese investments from its portfolio, succumbing to US pressure amid concerns over the malicious use of these ties. This decision followed an agreement with the US to divest from China prior to a substantial $1.5 billion investment from Microsoft. The US has expressed increasing concerns over the past few years about China’s growing influence in the UAE, including fears regarding the construction of a Chinese military port and potential security breaches involving US technology.

This major setback occurred just four months after the UAE joined BRICS. Instead of deepening ties with BRICS nations, the UAE is now recalibrating its relationship with the US. The Microsoft deal is pivotal, not merely for its financial value but for aligning the UAE closely with US interests in AI and related technologies. Marking a first in history, the UAE has signed the Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement with the US, which mandates adherence to US technology standards, effectively barring G42 from future collaborations with Chinese entities without jeopardizing US relations.

This development is a concerning signal for China, especially as the UAE is also a signatory to the Artemis Accords—a series of non-binding agreements that outline conduct norms in outer space with the US. Given the UAE's burgeoning space ties with China, there is a potential risk of the UAE pulling back from Chinese space investments if similar compliance demands arise.

The unfolding scenario underscores that the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s involvement with BRICS is more about strategic hedging than a definitive pivot away from the US. While China and Russia may hope to sway the UAE and Saudi Arabia, these Gulf nations are cautious, especially with concerns that BRICS' regional security initiatives might not align with their interests and regime stability.

In an article last year, I argued that Saudi Arabia's strategic direction would hinge on the outcomes of the ongoing conflict in Gaza: aligning more closely with the West if the US prevails, or tilting towards the East should the US falter. Strategically, it appears increasingly likely that within the next decade, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia will need to definitively choose their alliances.