Breaking: Iran and its allies are set to turn the red sea blockade against Israel into a total maritime siege

In reaction to the United States and its allies declaring war on Yemen under the name of “Operation Poseidon Archer”, Iran and its allies have collectively taken a decision to broaden the war on Israel and put it under full maritime siege. This is game changing because Israel receives most of its needed goods from abroad via sea and a total maritime siege will undermine the economy substantially like never before.

Particularly, today, in a meeting with the organizers of the National Congress for the Commemoration of the 24,000 Martyrs, Ayatollah Khamenei said it is in the hands of the officials of Islamic countries to “cut off the vital arteries to the Zionist regime.” He added: ““Islamic countries must cut off their political and economic relations with the Zionist regime and not help this regime.” The timing of these remarks is critical.

Yesterday, Iraqi factions have claimed responsibility for attacking Ashdod port with a drone for the first time. Previously, they have claimed responsibility for attacking Haifa port. Furthermore, in the past few days, Alqassam and Saraya Alquds have upped their attacks against Ashdod ports using rockets from Northern Gaza after Israel’s withdrawal. This came at the same time Abu Obayda said the Axis of Resistance has informed Hamas it is going to escalate the war.

For context, Ashkelon Port was put under limited operation in the beginning of the war due to its proximity to Gaza and repeated attacks on the port. Oil shipments have since been diverted to Eilat port. However, since Yemen imposed a blockade on Eilat the ships were diverted to Mediterranean Sea ports. This has offered Israel some relief despite added cost due to longer trips and higher insurance premiums on ships.

The siege on Mediterranean Sea ports will not necessarily target ships in the sea only but rather will target receiving ports infrastructure. This will make the process of undermining the siege more difficult as damaged infrastructure issues cannot be addressed easily and economically in a war situation. Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Palestine will be coordinating this full siege under the auspices of Iran.

The impact of a total maritime siege on Israel will be severe on companies and people. First, fuel shipments will be reduced. This will lead to transportation cost hike. Second, goods supplies will experience prolonged shortages and prices will increase substantially. Third, power and water supply cuts will be introduced. Fourth, Israel military will experience shortages and medical supplies will be scarcer. Fifth, the Israeli stock market is likely to plummet, and the shekel will lose value more than in the beginning of the war. Six, labour oversupply will become an issue as economic activity shrinks. Lastly, the IT sector is likely to survive the siege offering a lever to the economy.

Israel will have to establish an air bridge to get supplies from abroad. This will be extremely expensive and may ultimately lead Iran and its allies to extend the siege into airspace. Israel can also explore a land bridge with gulf countries. This however might take a while to set up in an economic fashion and its security is not guaranteed as it is easier to attack truck convoys than to attack ships.

Effectively, the siege will likely take full force next month. This means the war is going to last at least another 6-9 months. However, I assess the war is likely to drag into 2025, particularly as Netanyahu seeks to capitalise on Trump’s expected victory to undermine any political process with the Palestinians which will allow him to stay in power longer.

For additional context, please see:

-     The political economy of Yemen maritime blockade against Israel

-     Exclusive: Hezbollah’s role in the red sea maritime blockade against Israel