Egypt's growing military anxiety vs Israel
Egypt is likely to remain a key US ally, but neglecting its interests may push it to try manipulating global geopolitical fissures to gain leverage.
A few days ago, I posted an analysis proposing that leak about Egypt supplying Russia with ammunition is related to Sisi's desire to balance militarily against Israel.
Today, the Washington Post reported that indeed this was the case. According to the new report: "That document, part of a daily intelligence update for senior Pentagon leaders, said that Egypt planned to use the U.S. request for ammunition to push Washington for a long-term military aid deal and to obtain specific American equipment, including F-35 stealth fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems. The document said that Egypt would require American help for establishing a production line for the shells, a licensing agreement and raw materials."
The report added: “ElSisi envisioned the U.S. believing Israel was doing well, the Gulf countries were fine, and Europe was supporting the U.S. regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so as a result, Egypt’s role was secondary”.
The leadership of Egypt is increasingly anxious about being overlooked as a regional power. Particularly, Egypt is worried that a regional war by Israel on Iran and/or allies will put it in an unfavourable position and disrupt the decades-long peace, which is growingly becoming fragile. Shackled by a deepening debt crisis, Egypt is running out of options to maintain its military edge against Israel. Additionally, talks of Israeli involvement in Ukraine will push the military to counterbalance with strengthening ties with Russia or elsewhere.
Business implications
Egypt is likely to remain a key US ally, but neglecting its interests may push it to try manipulating global geopolitical fissures to gain leverage. Western businesses operating in and out of Egypt should expect to see similar tensions in the future, but it is unlikely this will affect their operations in the near term.