Exclusive: Hamas opens recruitment in Lebanon for an upcoming final war with Israel
The current conflict will not end in any political resolution or Hamas defeat. Instead, it will turn into a low intensity conflict leading to a future regional war.
Today, Hamas announced the creation of the Vanguards of Alaqsa Flood in Lebanon. According to a press release by its Beirut office, the movement is seeking to recruit young Palestinians interested in “taking parts in the liberation of Al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem.” The statement also extends the invitation to adults willing to deploy their scientific and technical skills in that pursuit. It emphasises the role of the Palestinian people in all their locations in “resisting occupation and the continuation of what was achieved by Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.”
The announcement time is critical. Israel has been claiming it has caused a massive blow to Hamas capabilities in Gaza and that it is seeking its full destruction by the end of the war. Hamas has challenged Israel’s ability to do so and continued to fight it for nearly two months now. According to previous remarks made by its leaders, the movement can carry on fighting for 12 months at current intensity.
Israel has leaked to the media that it envisages a long-term war with Hamas that extends into 2024 and lasts several months. However, despite strong rhetoric, it is not clear how much Israel has achieved from its declared objectives. Previously, Israel claimed Hamas capabilities were critically damaged only for Hamas to come out stronger and more popular.
Hamas announcement aims to send several messages to Israel and the international community. First, it is here to stay regardless of what they say. If they want to destroy it, they have to go to war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Neither Israel nor the US seem willing to engage in such a pre-emptive war at the current time. However, this seems to be something Israel will have to do in the future. Thus, it won’t be able to fight Hamas only in Gaza. Second, Hamas already sees itself surviving this round and building on it for even a bigger war which it labels as “the liberation war.” Thus, Israel and its allies are ought to consider the possibility of a military operation bigger than 7th Oct in the future. Third, Hamas will likely extend this invitation to Palestinians in Jordan and Syria. Furthermore, this may open to other Palestinians in diaspora in including Western and Latin American countries. Thus, killing more civilians in Gaza to harm Hamas’ recruitment pool is unlikely to be fruitful.
Previously, MENA Unleashed has assessed that the current conflict will not end in any political resolution or Hamas defeat. Instead, it will turn into a low intensity conflict with both sides mobilising and seeking to prepare the region and alliances for a major regional war.