How oil and gas can drag Israel into a regional war
The next war, while marketed to be about Jerusalem, will have deep economic motives.
When Israel and the US annexed the Golan Heights, conceded to Lebanon, and denied Gaza access to its energy sources, they thought at a momemt of extreme strength they can take advantage of the regional situation and achieve easy wins. However, Saudi Iranian recent rapprochement made Israel restless and since it has been discussing a multi-front war against Iran and its allies. Israel claims miscalculations may lead to such a war. Iran and its allies say such a war would be about Jerusalem and Alaqsa. While both depictions might be true, the drivers for such a war have to be partially economic. I argue that once again oil and gas will be the economic forces behind a prospective regional war.
Israel gave the US the rights to extract energy from the Golan Heights. It signed a deal with Lebanon to avoid war and allow it to extract its own oil and gas. Israel denied the Palestinians access to their energy reserves in the Mediterranean.
As the civil war ceases in Syria, Assad will seek to reestablish his legitimacy by pursuing conflict with Israel over the Golan Heights which Israel illegally annexed to reclaim the land and energy resources needed for the reconstruction of the country and to pay Iran's debt back.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah sees Israel at a weak point and wants to see escalation with Israel to pressure for better access to energy revenues and resolve the territorial dispute with Isrsel to regain legitimacy locally and regionally. By signing a maritime deal to avert war, Israel indicated to Hezbollah it is incapable of war. The lack of a deterring response to repeated harrassement and attacks on the borders also suggested Israel is unwilling to engage in war. Hence, Hezbollah is pursuing escalation.
For Gaza snd Palestine, Israel continues to hinder Gaza's access to offshore oil and gad fields. Recently, it discussed conceding to Palestine conditional on the PA reaping the benefits of energy revenues and the Egyptians extracting and exporting. Hamas is being intentionally left out of game.
Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine have vested economic interest in war. They believe if they align forces, they can pressure the Israelis to make more concessions under the threat of war which they believe even if it happens they will win it.
The Arrow and Shield operation in Gaza signalled to Iran axis the weakness and lack of resolve in Israel. Hence, the next war, while marketed to be about Jerusalem, will have deep economic motives.