Iran-Sudan Rapprochement: Is the UAE’s Abraham Market Losing North Africa?

The Clash of Markets moves to North Africa.

Iran’s Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Abdolnaser Hemmati, and Sudan’s Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Gibril Ibrahim Mohamed

In a sign of their deepening ties, Iran recently proposed establishing a joint economic and trade commission with Sudan, nearly a year after restoring diplomatic relations and bridging a rupture that lasted for seven years, and four months after exchanging ambassadors. This rapprochement threatens to erode the UAE’s influence in North Africa through its Abraham Market, as Tehran’s partnership with Khartoum could become a linchpin in a broader effort to strengthen its reach across the continent.

Beyond Iran's ambitions, this cooperation is also driven by shared isolation; both Iran and Sudan face international sanctions, and both see value in sharing resources and strategies to counter these pressures. For Sudan, this positions Iran as an ally it can rely on amid Western and regional ostracism. As Iran and Russia activate mutual payments in national currencies, Sudan can benefit from a financial lever into the newly found financial architecture. This will help Sudan have options in dealing with sanctions and gain some political independence.

However, Sudan’s complex history deepens the risks associated with these renewed ties to the Abraham Market. The country has a long track record of hosting Islamists and jihadists across the ideological spectrum who would fight any initiative that aims to incorporate their archnemesis, Israel, into the region’s fabric, as the Abraham Market plans to do. During Sudan’s previous regime, it offered refuge to figures like Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda, as well as members of Hamas, and Hezbollah, eventually placing Sudan on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

For Iran, known for its alliances with Hamas and Hezbollah, Sudan’s past may represent an opportunity to expand its regional network, countering Western and Gulf interests in the region. This is enroute to fulfil part of Khamenei’s vision towards establishing a counter Israel global alliance.