Libya, another major set back for the Abraham Accords and Israel
Normalising ties with Israel without addressing the Palestinian elephant in the room is wishful thinking not a realistic plan for peace.
The Israeli new government messed up again. This time the mess up is on a regional scale. The fiasco was a result of a few hours of intense political and popular action last night which I monitored closely.
Israel unilaterally decided to reveal that Libyan FM met with his Israeli counterpart in Rome. The Israelis alleged and framed the meeting was part of a normalisation process which included discussing protecting Jewish presence in Libya and cooperation in sectors such as water.
The news landed terribly in Tripoli. For about an hour, everyone reacted harshly to the claim and demanded the GNU steps down as a result. Libyans stormed the FM offices and called the GNU leaders traitors. Even in the East which also held talks previously with Israel, the criticisms were even higher.
The Israeli claim was made at night and outside hours so official Libyan reaction was a bit slow and the GNU was faced with a serious threat of a popular uprising. As a result, the PM booted the FM out and put her under investigation to absorb public discontent.
The golden question is why did Israel push such a story, stab Libyan FM in the back, and seriously threaten the Abraham Accords?
Desperation. Israel feels isolated since the Iranian Saudi rapprochement. Since Sudan normalised, no other country made any commitments to establishing ties to Israel. Even those who normalised do not seem excited about it after the rise of the far-right Israeli government which is championing an anti-Arab agenda.
Iran. Another "mistake" the Libyan FM made was meeting with the Iranian FM and discussing reopening of embassies and even trading with Iran. Hence, Israel effectively implemented a charater assassination for the Libyan FM to voice its displeasure with recent changes in the Libyan Iranian relations.
Incompetence. This could simply be just a misjudgement by staff unware of the delicate nature of the Libyan society.
The incident is a blow to Israeli narrative on the Abraham Accords. At large, Israel remains unpopular among Arabs even if governments normalise. Unless a just solution is agreed with the Palestinians, Israel will never become normal even if Netanyahu thinks otherwise.
The incident is also a hint to MBS on what could happen to Saudi if it normalises ties with Israel without addressing the Palestinian elephant in the room. The backlash in the Saudi case won't just be local, but will be global and negative sentiment will shoot up as it will be seen by the masses as a stab in the back on an issue most Muslims associate with.