Libyan FM lands in Tehran. What gives?

The growing ties between Iran and Russia mean that Russia is unlikely to want to confront Iran in Libya and would more likely seek to balance relations.

The stagnant Libyan-Iranian ties have been experiencing significant movement in the past few months. This included deliberations to reopen embassies, Iranian ships docking in Misrata port, and most recently the Libyan FM visited Tehran to discuss bilateral ties. Why are ties warming?

First, following the regional trend. Simply put, Libya is doing what's its neighbours are doing so it does not get left out and sidelined.

Second, buying Iranian weapons including drones. For a while the internationally recognised government in the West relied on Turkish aerial coverage via drones to deter Haftar attacks and achieve a level of deterrence. This however came with strings attached. Libya had to sign a deal with Turkey for maritime borders demarcation. Libya also had to commit to projects exclusively for Turkish companies. It has granted rights to Turkish companies to explore for energy. The military result of Turkish involvement in Libya is stalemate. Turkey is not willing to go against Russia which supports the East. Hence, Libya wants cheap no strings attached weapons/drones to use. Iran can help like it helped Algeria especially as Haftar builds ties with Israel. This will help the West balance against Turkey. Furthermore, giving ongoing changes to Turkish foreign policy, the West is trying to hedge by establishing ties with Iran.

Third, North Africa wide changes. North African foreign relations and alliances are undergoing an upheaval. Morocco-Algeria worsening ties and Egypt weakening is changing the power dynamics across the area. Algeria and Morocco are playing with the existing balance of power while Egypt is less willing to project power outside its borders. Sudan instability will effect the conflict in Libya as Haftar supply lines via Sudan get affected. Israel growing ties with Morocco, which includes opening two drones factory, alarms the West to the potential incoming shifts in the balance of power in the region.

Fourth, playing on Iran-Russia evolving ties. The growing ties between Iran and Russia mean that Russia is unlikely to want to confront Iran in Libya and would more likely seek to balance relations. If Iran supports the West militarily and Russia supports the East, the pair will have to find an equation for navigating complex ties like they did in Syria. This will protect the West and deter the East. Haftar actions to build stronger ties with Syria is also factored in and building ties with Iran will balance the changing ties.

Realignment is the game in North African now and soon conflict and tensions will experience new dynamics. Israel in Morocco might become balanced by Iran presence in Libya. Time will reveal how ties will evolve.