Qatar Gas to Syria: A Careful Balancing Act with Russia
Syria’s ailing economy is proving a US-Russia battleground.
After a nod from Washington, Qatar announced plans to provide natural gas to Syria through the Arab Gas Pipeline. Two million cubic metres are slated to pass through Jordan daily, in an effort to generate 400 megawatts (MW) of electricity per day. The project is part of the country’s post-Assad economic development and recovery, a task representing a new market for Gulf energy. For Qatar, Syria’s ailing economy and desperate economic ambitions present a perfect opportunity to enable Doha’s to play a pivotal economic role in Syria alongside Turkey cementing their regional partnership. Moreover, the US decision to permit this comes shortly after Syria began importing Russian oil, suggesting that the move was primarily aimed at countering Russia's influence.
Qatar-Syria: A Solid Foundation
Qatar has had a significant hand in directly funding opposition groups in Syria and media campaigns against former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad through its media network, Al Jazeera. The Emirate remained steadfast in its position, even refusing to backtrack and restore relations after other Arab countries started doing so in 2018.
In the wake of Assad’s ousting, it appears that Doha is 'following through' on its statements regarding its support for the Syrian people. In addition to providing humanitarian aid, the Emir of Qatar was the first head of state to visit the country after Assad’s fall. This event mirrored Al-Sharaa’s decision to visit Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip as president; both firsts suggest a vested Gulf interest in capitalizing on Syria and its natural resources.
Syria is an important pit stop for transporting Qatari energy to Europe, the final market the GCC is competing for. Doha’s recent gas announcement is a joint effort between the Qatar Fund for Development, Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, and the United Nations Development Programme. The initiative aims to fulfill the country’s desperate electricity needs in several major cities, which have suffered after the interim Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government cut off Iranian oil, the main supplier.
This development is being reported as being a step towards extending the Arab Gas Pipeline, a pipeline whose original design included Syria but is now primarily used to transport Israeli gas to Egypt and Jordan. Turkey is also vested in these gas corridor plans, as it has been looking to establish a pipeline through its territory to Europe, specifically the Qatar-Turkey Pipeline. The pipeline, proposed in 2009, would have also passed through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. Moreover, it would have established the country as a regional gas hub. However, Qatari officials quickly shut down rumours of its revival.
Qatari Relief as Counter to Russia
The quick turnaround in American sanctions relief for Syria and the permission for Qatar to proceed with the pipeline is likely a response to Russia's recent actions. Russia recently supplied the struggling country with Arctic oil, and it appears that Washington is concerned about a growing Russian influence in Syria's economic recovery. All in all, these developments point to a tricky balancing act now resting on the shoulders of the new HTS government: between a Western-led recovery and consequent Israel normalization on one side, and a BRICS-led alternative on the other.
