Qatar’s New Diplomatic and Energy Deals in Congo and Guyana reflects a New Political Economy

The US security guarantee and Gaza alignment reduced external vulnerability, enabling Doha to expand investments in Congo, Guyana and beyond.

Source: BBC

Doha hosted the latest step in Congo’s peace track. The Congolese government and M23 signed a framework in Qatar that sets up the next phase of talks and monitoring. On the same week, Georgetown, the capital of Guyana in South America, hosted the signing of a production sharing agreement for shallow water Block S4. TotalEnergies will operate the block with QatarEnergy holding 35% and Petronas holding 25% of the shares. The deals reflect a growing Qatar appetite to take on more external risk because the constraints that historically limited its risk appetite have changed following the September Defence deal with the US.

Qatar’s Congo move follows an upstream investment a few months earlier. On 1 September TotalEnergies announced the Nzombo exploration permit with a 35% stake for QatarEnergy and proximity to Moho infrastructure. The work programme includes an exploration well before year end. The deals place Qatari capital in Central Africa and the Western Atlantic and beyond.

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The risk appetite has risen

The US executive order of 29 September that assures the security of Qatar altered Doha’s external risk profile. The order functions like a sovereign backstop. It lowers the perceived risk around foreign investments and reduces the cost of capital for overseas ventures. As Qatar feels more secure at home, it increasingly feels more confident at projecting power through investments abroad and to yield the economic dividends of its conflict resolution and mediation diplomacy.

US and Qatari positions have moved in tandem since Gaza peace deal. The UN Security Council adopted a US drafted resolution that establishes an international stabilisation force and creates a Board of Peace to steer a two-year transition. Doha’s alliance and full backing for the US resolution indicates a Qatari foreign policy pivot for convergence with the US regional and global agenda.

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