Russian and Iranian weapons, Chinese diplomacy and a brewing Ukraine-like crisis in the making in Israel/Palestine
In August 2022, the Israeli president called his Russian counterpart to discuss an urgent matter. Herzog told Putin that Israel has evidence that Russian weapons are being smuggled to Gaza through Ukraine and he needs to stop the activity. No one knows what kind of weapons were smuggled or how.
In their recent talks about their drive to engage in a regional war with Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders often discussed how this war will be like no other. No, it is not because of its expected size, but because of the changing international politics and balance of power around the Israel-Palestine conflict.
According to them, Israel has unilaterally annulled the Oslo Accords and the two-state solution and there is an international appetite to challenge the changing status quo. Particularly, they see Russia and China interested in backing their military and diplomatic efforts to bring Israel and the US back to the negotiation table whilst under fire.
The war in Ukraine is key to understanding the new calculus. China, Iran and Russia are in a military alliance. Both are supplying Palestinian militant groups with weapons, satellite imagery, advanced telecommunication capabilities, and strategic advice. Russia benefits from exposing the US lack of moral consistency on Ukraine vs Palestinian rights which will undermine its global position on Ukraine. Iran wants Israel under pressure as it seeks to flex its regional muscles and undercut the Abraham Accords. China wants to play the role of the grand negotiator and replicate its Ukraine initiative in Israel/Palestine.
The Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the Global Security Initiative in 2023, and China believes that the key to solving the Israel-Palestine issue lies in upholding the vision of common security, according to the Chinese FM in a call with his Israeli counterpart today.
China will seek to diffuse the US attempts to garner international support around Ukraine by advancing the Palestinian question agenda on the international stage aided by Russian and Iranian weapons.
Business implications:
Besides the expected disruptions and material and personnel damage, many western companies may experience a reputational crisis of a size close to that which struck many due to the Ukrainian crisis. Human rights claims will be weaponised against the companies and calls for boycotts will spread, causing reputational and revenues losses.