Saudi, Afghanistan, and an upcoming regional war
I consider myself an informed analyst, but I have been grabbling with a question for months with no satisfactory answer. I have read a lot of commentary and analyses and still cannot find a reasonable answer. What explains the speed at which the MENA region is undergoing reconciliations? Particularly, why is Saudi expediting the process of conflict resolutions and wants them all resolved within a couple of months?
The best analysis I found out there claims the ongoing deal-signing spree has been cooking for several years. Hence, the process is not quick, but rather the announcements. I disagree with this view. The Saudi recent push for ending decades-long disputes with Iran, Yemen, Turkey, Palestine, and Syria is peculiarly fast. Nations do not pursue such a broad agenda suddenly. It is either a grave danger or a great opportunity that may explain the speed of Saudi steps.
When the US withdrew from Afghanistan at the end of August 2021, Observants described the American hurry to withdraw troops as humiliating and a sign of a US global retreat. No one realised the US was preparing for one of a kind war with Russia in Ukraine, which only became clear several months after the withdrawal. The US assessed the humiliation from an express withdrawal from Afghanistan will be easily forgotten given what was about to happen to Russia by the US and its allies. As known now, the US made the right decision. Otherwise, it would have been vulnerable to attacks backed by Russia in Afghanistan, which would have undermined its moral standing and military position globally.
Based on this anecdotal evidence, it seems Saudi is in a similar position. It has assessed that a regional war between Iran Axis and Israel Axis is imminent. This is becoming clearer by the day as both Israel and Iran up their rhetoric about a regional war. Iran especially took advantage of Ramadan to paint an upcoming war in a religious way and position the region in preparation for a protracted Islamic war against Jews (Hamas’ leader characterisation). The unprecedented show of force on multiple frontiers intends to deter Israel from going to war. Israel, on its part, began talking about an inevitable multi-theatre war in the coming few months.
In Israel’s strategic calculus, an attack on Iran and/or its allies is the only way to prevent a future where Iran and its allies become untouchable due to changes in the balance of power. Israel needs to show military might now and restore deterrence to ensure the future survival of the state.
Saudi is positioning itself to be neutral in an upcoming regional war. This is to allow it the flexibility to re-align itself depending on the results of the confrontation. The rapprochements might not be about peace after all. Those optimistic about the Saudi-Iran rapprochement might get disappointed.