The Coming Regional War in Israel/Palestine

According to Hamas, the end game of the war is to erect a militant uprising in the West Bank that coordinates with other groups in preparation for an even bigger war.

Previously, I have assessed that the chances for war in Israel/Palestine during Ramadan are at 75%. I am revising my assessment and putting the odds at 90%. Here is the rationale.

The assessment

- We are dealing with a premeditated war, not escalated violence. Ramadan is the chosen time rather than the trigger.

- Just now, in a rare media appearance, the Deputy Commander of Hamas Al-Qassam Brigades Marwan Issa said: “The political project in the West Bank has ended, the enemy has ended Oslo, and the coming days will be full of events”. He also said “changing the status quo in Alqasa mosque will lead to a regional earthquake”. Previously, Hassan Nasrallah made similar remarks and characterisation. According to the Head of Hamas in a speech in April 2022, Hamas is seeking to “liberate the West Bank within a year”. Other senior Palestinian militant leaders have also made similar remarks lately.

- Hamas and Hezbollah are calculably increasing tensions on these fronts:

• There will be a coordinated prisoners’ strike that will begin in Ramadan and was listed as a trigger for reaction in recent press releases by Hamas.

• Hamas and other groups vowed to retaliate against prospective Israeli violence in Ramadan in Alaqsa which is most likely to happen.

• Lone-wolf attacks are not happening anymore. All new attacks are of coordinated nature. Hamas claimed it is supporting every single act of violence and that they are part of a greater plan.

• Violent attacks are now originating in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza fronts. Not only that, groups planning attacks from Syria and Lebanon were reported by Israeli security services. Particularly, they said Hamas is training affiliates there to conduct attacks and launch rockets against Israel.  

• Recent clashes at the Lebanese-Israeli borders signal changing appetite for engaging in escalation.

- Hamas was in Russia recently and they seem to believe Russia is geared to show support for them during an upcoming conflict tilting the balance favourably and embarrassing the West with a deeply rooted crisis.

- In the 2012 war, Hamas tested new weapons and battlefield tactics in an 8 days confrontation. In 2014, they used the capabilities for a 50 days confrontation. In 2021, the war was a copy of 2012 as Hamas tested new missiles and war technologies for 10 days. It is expected in 2023 they use their new capacities at scale for a broader and lengthier confrontation.

- Hamas and Hezbollah believe Israel is at its weakest point and the timing is ideal for a concerted regional military attack.

- Iran-Saudi recent rapprochement signals Saudi will sit this war on neutral mode, maybe even show support for the Palestinians. 

- Israel’s far-right actions lately frustrated many regional forces including Israel’s allies and in a way, they are united in showing their dislike for the growing negative sentiment towards Palestinians and Arabs generally. To some extent, many benefit from demonstrating their opposition to the far-right leadership of Israel. 

- Hamas’s recent reconciliation with Syria despite the deep rift aims to garner support for a protracted renewed conflict with Israel.

- According to Hamas, the end game of the war is to erect a militant uprising in the West Bank that coordinates with other groups in preparation for an even bigger war.

Business implications

It is expected that energy prices will increase as a result alongside disruptions in maritime and air shipping and travel.