The ongoing Israel-Palestine escalation and the Palestinians military strategy of attrition
The military strategy is followed by Russia in Ukraine and will likely be the favourable option for China in any future war with Taiwan. The aim is to demoralise the enemy and destroy the economy.
Three weeks ago, I have the ongoing Israel-Palestine military escalation. Today, I shed some light on the Palestinians’ military strategy moving forward.
In 2023 and in their struggle for ending Israeli occupation, Palestinians in all of the MENA region are being mobilised collectively to push for the objective. Led by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, smaller Palestinian militant groups are being formed in the West Bank, inside Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
They have been conducting small attacks on Israeli targets recurrently. The aim of most of these attacks is not to kill Israelis, but to exhaust them. The ongoing Israel-Palestine escalation demonstrates clearly the strategy of attrition being deployed.
Instead of waging a full-fledged attack on Israel, Palestinian military factions in Gaza are conducting a low-intensity war on Israel. They are launching drones, rockets, cyber, missiles attacks which are consuming Israeli security and military capabilities. For example, in Gaza envelop, Palestinian heavy bullets are being shot to activate the Iron dome costing Israel a fortune with no real military gain.
So why are not Hamas and Islamic Jihad launching a full scale conflict despite claiming to have the needed capabilities for such a goal? It seems Palestinians decided to replicate the Egyptian military strategy. Jamal Abdul Nasser waged a war of attrition on Israel after he believed Egypt was ready for a full-scale war. The aim was to consume and exhaust Israel in the run-up for the actual war which took place in 1973 under the leadership of Sadat and led to Egyptian victory and liberation of lands seized by Israel in 1967.
The Palestinians seem to be interested in replicating the same formula. In the coming few months or even years, we are likely to see the low intensity conflict prolong. With Israel unwilling to wage a multi-theatre war which it thinks is too costly and may not even win, it has to live with the reality that it will be attacked from several sides of the borders recurrently and concurrently.
Interestingly, this military strategy is followed by Russia in Ukraine and will likely be the favourable option for China in any future war with Taiwan. The aim is to demoralise the enemy, destroy the economy, and bleed the military capabilities.
Business implications
Sea and air ports will experience increasing disruptions. Factories will become targets of drones and rockets attacks. Energy supplies from mediterranean sea will be disrupted as well as shipping routes. The cost of insurance will likely increase and the resulting lower economic activity will lead to capital flight and currency devaluation. Migration to Israel will lessen and migration from Israel will increase adding pressure on the Israeli labour market. Business disruptions will become more frequent due to attacks, protests, and other socially disruptive activities.