The political economy of Yemen maritime blockade against Israel

In an attrition war like this, a blockade impact will take 3-6 months to bite harshly. This suggests by the Spring of 2024, Israel may be forced to lift the siege on Gaza.

In Sep 2022, I wrote an article called "Hamas joins the regional struggle for maritime power" in which I discussed how Hamas with the help of its regional allies is seeking to become a maritime power. The article got me banned from the publication. Here is my doubling down on the argument. 

As part of this war, one of Hamas stated objectives is to fully lift the Israeli siege on Gaza. To do so, Hamas is deploying several capabilities and strategies. it has shown it has maritime capabilities such as torpedoes, unmanned submarines, frogmen, and mines. Such capabilities if sufficient in size can make it capable of imposing a maritime blockade on Israel in the Mediterranean Sea. Hamas thus far has not used such capabilities en masse but tested them. Since Hamas has not used many of its strategic capabilities in this war thus far, it is possible that Hamas might use them if the war prolongs to pressure Israel to lift the siege on Gaza.

Hamas is supplementing its local efforts with regional and even global strategies and capabilities through its allies. Yemen has announced a maritime blockade on Israeli ships carrying goods and commodities to Israel through the red sea. At first, the blockade started against Israeli ships only. Yemen then expanded the blockade to include all international ships that transport goods and commodities to Israel. In exchange for stopping the attacks on these ships, Yemen has demanded the allowance of passage of food and medicine to Gaza through Rafah Crossing.

The result of Yemen blockade has been skyrocketing of insurance premium for ships heading to Israel and severe delays for shipments taking longer routes. This has added pressure on prices in Israel which have experienced exceptional inflation. This includes more expensive food, vegetables, cars, electronics, fuel, and other. Israel can likely withstand this hardship for some months, but the blockade is likely to last beyond that.

Israel has asked the US and its allies to form a maritime alliance to protect global shipping in the red sea. But the trick is Yemen blockade is not international per se. It only targets Israel. Hence, the economic incentive for other governments to take part in such an alliance is not there. At the end of the day, shipping companies are private for-profit companies. Why would a national government spend resources to protect part of the business of a private company? Business logic would mean these companies are ought to drop their business with Israel. It is cheaper than trying to police the red sea and engage in a maritime battle that will cause further disruption to global shipping.

If the war expands to Lebanon, it is also possible Hezbollah will join Hamas in imposing a maritime blockade in the Mediterranean. The US can indeed declare war on Yemen and send warships to police the red sea, but it will have to incur the cost alone which will be more expensive than just pressuring Israel to lift the siege on Gaza. Cost/benefit analysis suggests Israel is incurring heavy direct and indirect losses due to the siege on Gaza and the Yemen blockade it ensues. In an attrition war like this, a blockade impact will take 3-6 months to bite harshly. This suggests by the Spring of 2024, Israel may be forced to lift the siege on Gaza.

P.S. readers are encouraged to consider how the dynamics of the Yemen blockade on Israel will manifest in a potential war in Taiwan. I believe China will be studying it as part of their preparations for a possible conflict that will heavily rely on imposing a maritime blockade on Taiwan.