There is not going to be a day after. What you see is what you get.
In this piece, I aim to provide a vision for the readers about what to realistically expect moving forward in Palestine-Israel conflict.
The fight will not end. Instead, it will continue until Isr decides it is tired and wants to leave. Until then, Hamas will continue to kill ground troops, destroy military vehicles, launch rockets on Isr cities, and conduct commandos operations in the sea and land alongside conducting cyber attacks. Effectively, Isr is stuck in Gaza and Hamas is interested in it staying longer as it has advantage in urban warfare. According to my calculations, at this intensity, Isr military can last between 2-3 months only. Hence, by the end of Dec we will start hearing about changes in the military plans. Economically, I assess that if Isr carries on beyond this point with relatively medium intensity, at the 6-9 months mark, the economy will be structurally destroyed (labour market imbalances, weaker currency, higher borrowing cost, shrinking investments, capital flight). I thus assess Isr will disengage from Gaza and turn the fight into a low intensity conflict with surgical operations after 3-6 months. Hamas aim is to continue to make Gaza envelop cities depopulated which they will continue to be able to do. If Isr lifts the siege fully on Gaza, Hamas will tacitly agree to letting Israelis return to these cities. In short, Isr and Hamas will have to come to terms with difficult understandings and the conflict will drag on at low intensity. The West Bank will undergo a militant uprising. There will not be a lot of attacks, but military build up for a future full out war where the West Bank militants will attack illegal Israeli settlements backed by Gaza militant factions. Abbas will engage in an international process for peace, but such talks will only be empty talks buying time for the upcoming broad war.
Understandably, Isr will never accept defeat. While it is true Isr lost on the 7th and in the counter offensive, Isr still has the capabilities to restrategise and mobilise again for a better fight. It first will have to address its political crisis. The political agenda of the upcoming leader of Isr will have to be based on full total war against Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria (maybe Jordan too). Israeli society will not accept anything less than that to feel safe moving forward. Any political leader that won’t offer such maximalists objectives will struggle to garner broad societal support. A new leadership for the military is also needed. Just bombing places has proven not to work. Israel needs brave soldiers that are willing to die for their country in urban warfare in the tens of thousands. Isr will also expedite and expand the use of robots in combat. Isr will need to turn society into a war society. It will also seek to radicalise and recruit foreign fighters from western societies and possibly India. This has already started and will expand. The war is now religious and as bibi puts it (light vs dark). The civilisational element will be an integral part of the Israeli plan to defeat the aforementioned countries.
Regionally, there will be broad re-alignment process where countries take Israel or Palestine side in preparation for a full out war in the region by the first half of next decade. This may also happen sooner as both camps assess their strategic advantages and align their interests. Internationally, China’s upcoming war in Taiwan will entangle the US in Asia more deeply. Russia is likely to develop its attack on Ukraine to annex the whole country as it assesses western military support is shrinking. The US will have a lot on its plate to address such as saving the dollar hegemony, domestic political crises, and economic slowdown. Palestine supporters will experience a global crackdown including demonisation and linking them to terrorism. This effort will be funded by the UAE and Saudi that in pursuit of undermining political Islam and maintaining their political systems will mostly align themselves with Isr.