Thinking the Unthinkable: Situational Assessment and Strategic Foresight for the War in Israel/Palestine

Normative thinking continues to prove to be inadequate for understanding the intricacies of recent global geopolitical changes. Those who think inside the box are deemed to be caught up in biases and normative thinking distorting their judgement. Only those who dare to think outside the box and consider the unthinkable have a chance of producing insightful perspectives. In this  post, I seek to reflect on the war and offer a point view about the future.

First, the war was not surprising. The truth is the war has been long in the making especially since the beginning of this year. Hamas leadership explicitly spoke of it and Israeli military leaders focused their training efforts on the possibilities for a multifront war for the past few months. The first post of MENA Unleashed in March 2023 was titled “The Coming Regional War in Israel/Palestine” which discussed the details of the upcoming war. Over the past 8 months, the topic was covered frequently in the substack. Hence, MENA Unleashed readers were not surprised when they learned about the war occurrence. Interestingly, in 2021, Hamas produced a TV show about this war in which in the final two episodes the exact events of the war were broadcasted in the show. This included a deception plan to blindside Israel satellites and command and control centres. The war plan was made public for years and all attack types conducted were seen before. In a way, the war has been rehearsed a lot.

Second, this war is a space and technology war. Available information suggests that Hamas has somehow succeeded in hacking Israel information technology infrastructure and prevented its ability to respond to its incursion in a timely fashion. Hence, it took Israel a long time to regain initiative which allowed Hamas fighters to continue their incursion into Israel with minimal disruption. Footages released by the group show fighters walking to their targets, others taking a motorbike. The broad and multiple attacks suggest Hamas used advanced communication technologies to facilitate the communication with its fighters in the field (likely using Chinese communication systems). According to the group, attackers reached as deep as 40 km into Israel. This would have not been possible if there was not infrastructure in place to communicate and coordinate military action. Iran played a role here as well. In the past few years, Iran has been launching more independent satellites which are partly used to spy on Israel but also to facilitate communication among the Axis of Jerusalem countries. The current war is being run from Beirut with coordination across multiple countries. This suggests Iran is offering more secure communication channels potentially using independent satellites. Furthermore, Iran is now able to offer live high resolution images from its satellites about Israel. Such images are used to monitor the battlefield and plan attacks with greater accuracy and impact. Iran (aided by Russia) also provided Hamas with digital warfare systems which enables it to disrupt the Iron Dome and Israel space. Overall, there is clash between western technologies and eastern technologies here. Chinese and Russia technologies have so far outperformed the western ones.

Third, no clear political objective. When Hamas leaders were interviewed yesterday on TV channels, they were asked whether they can define their political objectives or not. In all occasions they refused to offer a specific set of objectives. Instead, they gave a general objective of liberating their people and defending religious sites. Despite that, previous recent statements give some insights about why Hamas waged this war. The movement is seeking to erect a militant uprising in the West Bank that coordinates with other groups in preparation for an even bigger war. This was mentioned in Mohammed Daif, Head of Alqassam, recorded audio message declaring the war. Hence, although the war is taking place in Gaza borders, the ultimate goal is to encourage Palestinians in the West Bank to pursue a new intifada that can liberate the West Bank. Releasing Palestinian prisoners in Israel is another previously declared objective. This explains why Hamas operatives sought to capture tens of Israelis as part of their ops. Lastly, the war came shortly after Assad came back from Syria whilst Iran was conducting a large drill in Syria weeks after the India Middle East Europe corridor was announced. MENA Unleashed has previously reported on the growing Chinese backing for a regional war including engaging Hamas in talks in the past few months. Saleh Arouri said recently that interest dictates his movement pursue a regional war. This suggests Hamas is trying to disrupt US led efforts in the region to the benefit of China and Russia.

Fourth, the economic impact on Israel is going to be huge and unprecedented. The country has incurred losses to infrastructure and public morale. The war has disrupted economic activities and hit the labour market substantially. The Shekel will almost certainly devalue and capital flight will be unavoidable. Debt servicing will slowdown and industrial activity will lag behind. Tourism will stop and services will struggle to stay in business. Public services will be overwhelmed and exhausted. Cyber attacks will undermine access to digital services and information. Israel will almost certainly need a reconstruction fund following the war. It will be difficult to attract foreign investments moving forward. Israel crediting rating will decline. Sea and air ports will be hit and movement of people and goods will be difficult. Migration and displacement will pressure Israel.

Regionally, the war has been long in the making and each actor is betting on it to advance their national strategic agenda. Israel needs this war to prove one more time that it is the leading military hegemon in the region. The solidification of such position is a cornerstone to ensuring Israel survival and finalising the US plans to restructure the regional architecture favourably. Arab gulf states do not welcome the war as it disrupts their economic plans for the region. Egypt is finding the war to be necessary to ensuring the balance of power continues with Israel as the US quickly seeks to abandon the strategic security aid and the balance of power guarantee that ensured stability in the region for the past 50 years. Hence, Egypt has strategic interest in the prolongation of the war to pressure the US to seek better ties with Cairo. At the same time, Egypt does not want to deal with a migration crisis at its borders so it will seek to stabilise the situation. Turkey finds the war a good opportunity to demonstrated why it is critical for the EU energy security as the IMEC viability comes under question. Iran as the lead provocateur for the war seems to be motivated by believes that Israel and the US were going to war against it soon. Furthermore, Iran is seeking to solidify its newly found power and demonstrate to the world the weaknesses of Israel. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are likely to be involved in the conflict. The list of participants may expand further if the war prolongs and spill over. Normalisation with Israel continuity will depend on the war results but it has effectively became impossible to sell normalisation to other countries as citizens will reject it. However, if Israel wins the war, it will open the floodgates for normalisation in the medium term. Internationally, this war is a manifestation of competition between the east and the west and is critical for the future of the new world order.

Militarily, Israel does not have much options. It has to invade Gaza, something which it has avoided for the past 10 years. Can Israel uproot Hamas? Sure, but the price will be so high it is questionable whether they will pursue such a goal. Politically, Israel is in a tough position. Ultimately, the two state solution is effectively dead. A one state solution is not entertainable. The only resolution to the conflict remains political hence a new international peace process will have to emerge on the back of this war.