Will Israeli-Lebanese border tension blow up?

If Hezbollah gets its way, Israel image and deterrence will deteriorate. If Israel decides to go to war to prevent this, it will lead to regional implications.

I have watched the Israeli Lebanese borders tension levels for over 15 years, and the border was never so tense. Here is the Israeli dilemma:

Hezbollah wants Israel to give back land it deems part of Lebanese territories. Israel wants to annex that part. As part of rhetorical war, both Hezbollah and Israeli military leaders threatened to send the other side back into the stone age if war erupts over this land. However both deem the other side as deterred and has no real interest in escalation leading to full on war.

Hezbollah is pushing ahead with border harrassement and incursion to test the Israeli tolerance threshold and installed tents in the area. It made frictions and clashes of small scale frequent daily occurrings. The Israelis have upped their security and proactively responded to various incidents.

At this point, Hezbollah has prepared itself for war and deployed troops and capabilities and according to Israeli assessment it is following an offensive strategy.

Hezbollah's opportunism stems from its assessment that Israel has never been weaker and the political crisis coupled with the judicial one will prevent Israel from going to full war. Furthermore, Hezbollah has been showing new technologically advanced capabilities which it believes can be used to defeat the Israeli army. In Hezbollah view, it got Israel corned and in an unfavourable position.

Israel thinks it can resist Hezbollah's pressure because it is not ready for war due to social, political and economic instability. It has been stirring social stife in Lebanon in an attempt to alter Hezbollah’s calculations further and reduce its risk taking appetite.

A small and containable round of escalation might occur nonetheless. If Hezbollah gets its way again, Israel image and deterrence will deteriorate which will encourage others in the region to emulate it. If Israel decides to go to war to prevent this, it will lead to broad regional implications. More importantly, the rise of tension levels is a sign of structural change in the balance of power between Israel and its adversarial neighbour.